Following on from the information theory thread yesterday. If something has a low probability of happening and actually does happen, then that causes surprise. Things with high surprise have more informational value, they are more interesting than the mundane. You can dine out on them.

I have just bought a EuroMillions on-line ticket. Were I to have prescience of the numbers to be drawn tonight AND I used these on my ticket, that information has high monetary value.

Tomorrow I could wite a blog post detailing the purchase of my new Aston Martin DB12 bought with lottery winnings. You can place a mental bet as to the likelihood of this.

In this blog my dreams have suggested that I have had prior incarnations many of which are Buddhist. I was born into an agnostic non practicing Christian household, where my mother was a Chemist and my father a Metallurgist. She was fond of fags and he of beer. I inherited both vices. I have had a standard UK education culminating in a Chemical Physics Ph.D.. I wrote a few science research papers. So I am likely to sceptical about the unprovable.

Were I to assert that I believe these reincarnations to be true then I would fit many of the criteria for delusional disorder. There is some “evidence” that I had one Tibetan Buddhist lifetime

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 This from Wikipedia on Delusional Disorder

The following can indicate a delusion:

1. An individual expresses an idea or belief with unusual persistence or force, even when evidence suggests the contrary.
2. That idea appears to have an undue influence on the person’s life, and the way of life is often altered to an inexplicable extent.
3. Despite their profound conviction, there is often a quality of secretiveness or suspicion when the person is questioned about it.
4. The individual tends to be humorless and oversensitive, especially about the belief.
5. There is a quality of centrality: no matter how unlikely it is that these strange things are happening to the person, they accept them relatively unquestioningly.
6. An attempt to contradict the belief is likely to arouse an inappropriately strong emotional reaction, often with irritability and hostility. They will not accept any other opinions.
7. The belief is, at the least, unlikely, and out of keeping with the individual’s social, cultural, and religious background.
8. The person is emotionally over-invested in the idea and it overwhelms other elements of their psyche.
9. The delusion, if acted out, often leads to behaviors which are abnormal, and out of character, although perhaps understandable in light of the delusional beliefs.
10. Other people who know the individual observe that the belief and behavior are uncharacteristic and alien.

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Joseph SM, Siddiqui W. Delusional Disorder. [Updated 2023 Mar 27]. In: StatPearls [Internet]. Treasure Island (FL): StatPearls Publishing; 2026 Jan-. Available from: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK539855/

Epidemiology

The lifetime morbid risk of delusional disorder in the general population has been estimated to range from 0.05 to 0.1%, based on data from various sources, including case registries, case series, and population-based samples. According to the DSM-5, the lifetime prevalence of delusional disorder is about 0.02%. The prevalence of the delusional disorder is much rarer than other conditions like schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and other mood disorders; this may be in part due to underreporting of delusional disorder, as those with delusional disorder may not seek mental health attention unless forced by family or friends. The mean age of onset is about 40 years, with a range of 18 to 90 years. The persecutory and jealous type of delusion is more common in males, while the erotomanic variety is more common in females.

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On line there are at least fifty known Tulku lineages accounted for. This suggests a global per capita probability of  6 x 10 ^-9 . It is pretty unlikely. Were my parents to have hung out in Buddhist circles we could adjust that probability upwards. We might struggle however to get anywhere near 1 x 10 ^-5. As a probability.  

It is very unlikely to be the case that I am a reincarnated lama.

Given the reported occurrence of delusional disorder (above) it is much more likely that I am having delusions and suffer from delusional disorder. I started having my Buddhist visions around the age of 40 which fits the time line.

Were I actually to be a reincarnate lama that would be a high surprise piece of information of potentially high informational value. The snag is this could never be proven unequivocally. Someone other than me, with high kudos, might agree with the tentative diagnosis of reincarnation.

Given my educational background and my prior research into high resolution laser spectroscopy which includes molecular rotational coherence quantum beats and permutation inversion group theory it is perhaps more likely that I could come up with some new “quantum” ideas. The odds are possibly better. Moot.

However ideas and theories are more commonly found in universities and research  institutes.  They happen at august institutions. The probability of a modern man-in-his-shed having decent and useful scientific ideas is very low.  I can’t estimate the level with confidence but it has got to be well below the 0.02%  prevalence mentioned for delusional disorder above. Let’s say 0.001%  or 1 x 10 ^-5 for purposes of discussion as an upper limit on probability that the ideas have merit.

Were I to have any ideas these are therefore more likely to be delusions so it would be very foolish of me to approach anyone about them. I can rabbit on here in a harmless manner.

It is very improbable that I am an incarnate lama and that I might come up with decent new quantum ideas. Multiplying the probabilities together we get a probability of 1 x 10 ^-10. Given a global population of 8 billion , 8 x 10 ⁹ it might just occur.

It is very unlikely and were it to be the case it would be highly surprising.

Chances are that probability is more predictive in the population at large.

Every day, in life, we place bets, take a punt on what we believe in and choose to do.

At the moment because of the malevolence being visited upon Iran and the consequences thereof we are increasingly of the opinion that the appetite for house sales and purchases in France is tanking. We could sample this hypothesis by putting the house on for sale.

If nobody makes a sensible offer this would not be a surprise and of low information value.

If at low probability someone made a tidy offer, that new information would enable us to plan and move. It would be, to us, a valuable piece of information.

We would be able to look for a place with nice stables for our unicorns and dragons.