The Tendency to Underestimate

This tendency can be followed by overreaction and disproportionate over reaction at that. One might point at Pearl Harbour, 9/11 and the recent Hamas attacks. There was underestimation prior in each case. If something catches people unawares it is an act of terrorism if “they”, do it, or an act of cunning if “we”, do it. Placing thousands of indiscriminate pager bombs in Lebanon to maim and kill Hezbollah was “clever” and in no way terrorism… “Terrorism” depends upon which side you are on. The “allies” firebombed Dresden, hardly an altruistic act.

People, countries, who are prone to arrogance tend to underestimate others. I’ll speculate that Trump has made a miscalculation concerning how people feel concerning the USA and his actions in particular. We shall see.

It is possible that people have underestimated me or that they have overestimated me or that they have judged me spot on. I have perceived that from time to time I have surprised people. I have done things which they did not see coming. I may be mistaken. If they had me sussed, they would have foreseen.

The problem with words like underestimate is that they are linked to competition, winning and even conflict. “Never underestimate your opponent”. The estimation is tied up in an oppositional scenario, there is a presupposition, a desire for victory.

When I was a younger man, I thought I knew a lot more than I actually did. I was full of bullshit and prone to evangelising about science, thermodynamics and veganism. I have hindsight now. But back in the thrall then, I was certain and dogmatic. People in the thrall lack a wider awareness. They do not know what is beyond their ken and may be arrogant and conceited about their self-diagnosed omniscience.

Not so long ago someone “told” me some things about Castaneda and that The Guardians do not exist. He was adamant. As usual I was direly in need of education. People have told me many things. I’ll estimate that in general I get told way more than I am asked. The assumption is perhaps that because I am not a soap-boxing gobshite, I know little or nothing. I do not feel the urge to show off.

I could say that I know no-thing but nobody would understand what I mean by that statement nor get the experience behind it. They would not think to ask what I mean. They might tell me.

People can be markedly unaware as to the extent of what is unknown for them and yet feel entitled to opine thereupon.

I have mentioned the blue books opus in this blog. There may be those that think it to be made up hippy shit. If the contents are real and even quasi-factual then it would be unwise to underestimate the so-called hierarchy, those others call The Guardians of the Race. The Tibetan suggests they differ markedly from Joe Bloggs buying a steak slice at Greggs and from those having a BYOB works event at 10 Downing Street.

People can pooh-pooh out of arrogance and that can be a miscalculation. There is a tendency to pooh-pooh as a knee jerk reaction which may stem from a sense of entitled complacency.

The Tibetan mentions masters as having taken the fifth initiation, this means that even after they become a nirvani there is work to do. If you have never met a putative awakened Buddha, it might be wise not to slag them off, if only on the off chance that they are real.  It might be good to spread your bets.

But of course, those who are fond of the sound of their own voices, when they find themselves in a bit of a hole, tend to keep on digging. They may be unaware because of their underestimation that they have indeed fallen into a hole, a trap of their own making. Even when someone hands them a spade or a shovel, they may not cotton on to the hole hypothesis. Dig baby dig.

This tendency to underestimate is widespread. It pertains a little to an arrogant sense of entitlement.

“Mr Ghandhi, India is British my good man…”

I have never met a “know-it-all” who actually does.

Perhaps one day if people keep telling me what I am, what I know, what I am thinking, what my motivations are and who I am, I will learn.

Then they will be right…

And I can finally sleep soundly…

Talking Behind Someone’s Back and Fait Accompli

At the moment there is a bit of furore in the press that Trump et al. are taking with Putin et al. behind the backs of Ukraine, Europe and the UK. They are doing this in the Machiavellian home of Saud.

People seem not to like this yet they talk behind the backs of others on a regular basis. It is a play straight out of the forceful manipulation handbook / playbook, cobble together some cunning plan and then present it to the absentee(s) as a fait accompli. Should they not accept they are branded ungrateful and non-cooperative even if they have to bend over grab their ankles and take it up the arse without lubricant.

The praetorians always know what is best for the plebs. The plebs should thank their lucky stars.

Behind closed doors cabals are not inclusive. They may pretend and profess to be, but that is bullshit.

These cabals are part of what is euphemistically termed “management practice”. The 1922 committee is an example of behind doors stitch up. I have been on the periphery of such behaviours and perhaps on the receiving end of fait accompli. It is a Don Corleone offer even without the nocturnal equine encouragement.

Wherever actual transparency as opposed to the public relations version of that is absent, gossip spreads faster than Covid 19 at a race meeting / piss up. I saw firsthand on Twitter / X how misinformation and BS spread faster than a Los Angeles wild fire blown by a warm breeze.

A forced “agreement” rarely has longevity. A contract based on gossip and hearsay lacks solid foundations.

I have never myself appointed a spokesperson or port-parole so if any charlatan pretends to speak on my behalf, they are lying. If someone says behind closed doors that they know what I am after, what I might want / like they are delusional, mendacious and manipulative. Yet I could not stop anyone from casting themselves as such. People may speculate, that is at best inaccurate and at worst dangerous.

Many people are so sure that they know how to sort a situation out, how to bring it to a close. Such premature omniscience is rarely able to hold back adamant opinion. It rarely occurs to these that they may be wrong. One cannot change the view of an adamant dogmatic by persuasion.

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Do you talk behind people’s back?

Do you make cunning plans without inclusive consultation?

Are you a Trump mini-me?

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