Ken – Dreamyoga

This tendency can be followed by overreaction and disproportionate over reaction at that. One might point at Pearl Harbour, 9/11 and the recent Hamas attacks. There was underestimation prior in each case. If something catches people unawares it is an act of terrorism if “they”, do it, or an act of cunning if “we”, do it. Placing thousands of indiscriminate pager bombs in Lebanon to maim and kill Hezbollah was “clever” and in no way terrorism… “Terrorism” depends upon which side you are on. The “allies” firebombed Dresden, hardly an altruistic act.

People, countries, who are prone to arrogance tend to underestimate others. I’ll speculate that Trump has made a miscalculation concerning how people feel concerning the USA and his actions in particular. We shall see.

It is possible that people have underestimated me or that they have overestimated me or that they have judged me spot on. I have perceived that from time to time I have surprised people. I have done things which they did not see coming. I may be mistaken. If they had me sussed, they would have foreseen.

The problem with words like underestimate is that they are linked to competition, winning and even conflict. “Never underestimate your opponent”. The estimation is tied up in an oppositional scenario, there is a presupposition, a desire for victory.

When I was a younger man, I thought I knew a lot more than I actually did. I was full of bullshit and prone to evangelising about science, thermodynamics and veganism. I have hindsight now. But back in the thrall then, I was certain and dogmatic. People in the thrall lack a wider awareness. They do not know what is beyond their ken and may be arrogant and conceited about their self-diagnosed omniscience.

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Not so long ago someone “told” me some things about Castaneda and that The Guardians do not exist. He was adamant. As usual I was direly in need of education. People have told me many things. I’ll estimate that in general I get told way more than I am asked. The assumption is perhaps that because I am not a soap-boxing gobshite, I know little or nothing. I do not feel the urge to show off.

I could say that I know no-thing but nobody would understand what I mean by that statement nor get the experience behind it. They would not think to ask what I mean. They might tell me.

People can be markedly unaware as to the extent of what is unknown for them and yet feel entitled to opine thereupon.

I have mentioned the blue books opus in this blog. There may be those that think it to be made up hippy shit. If the contents are real and even quasi-factual then it would be unwise to underestimate the so-called hierarchy, those others call The Guardians of the Race. The Tibetan suggests they differ markedly from Joe Bloggs buying a steak slice at Greggs and from those having a BYOB works event at 10 Downing Street.

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People can pooh-pooh out of arrogance and that can be a miscalculation. There is a tendency to pooh-pooh as a knee jerk reaction which may stem from a sense of entitled complacency.

The Tibetan mentions masters as having taken the fifth initiation, this means that even after they become a nirvani there is work to do. If you have never met a putative awakened Buddha, it might be wise not to slag them off, if only on the off chance that they are real. It might be good to spread your bets.

But of course, those who are fond of the sound of their own voices, when they find themselves in a bit of a hole, tend to keep on digging. They may be unaware because of their underestimation that they have indeed fallen into a hole, a trap of their own making. Even when someone hands them a spade or a shovel, they may not cotton on to the hole hypothesis. Dig baby dig.

This tendency to underestimate is widespread. It pertains a little to an arrogant sense of entitlement.

“Mr Ghandhi, India is British my good man…”

I have never met a “know-it-all” who actually does.

Perhaps one day if people keep telling me what I am, what I know, what I am thinking, what my motivations are and who I am, I will learn.

Then they will be right…

And I can finally sleep soundly…

When Israel launched its revenge attack on Gaza last year, I predicted that maybe 2% of the Gazan population would be killed and this figure has already been surpassed. There have been more that 5% injured. Apparently, this kind of slaughter is “allowable” without much adverse comment to the contrary by western leaders. 7% of the population killed or injured does not meet the criterion of genocide, according to some.

If not, what does?

If you would have asked me five years ago if this kind of slaughter could happen in our times, I would have said no because it was beyond my ken that a highly armed power would be allowed to kick the living shit out of an impoverished and nearly defenceless neighbour. The giant kills the minnow, the bully beats up the unpopular geek who dared to answer back.

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It looks like Putin is winning the war of attrition in Ukraine. They are running out of men to draft. The Russians know attrition better than any – Stalingrad.

As the year draws to a close, I am not optimistic for 2025.

The paradigm of governmental borrowing to finance public expenditure is looking ever shakier. Living on tick is not a great idea. Several countries like Zambia, Argentina, Bhutan, Japan, Greece, Sudan, USA and UK have national debt in excess of GDP. {IMF sourced} France too.

The populations in Europe and parts of Asia age and the demographic time bomb of too few children per woman is ticking ominously. There simply is not enough money to sustain our current ways of life.

People want popular policies to get into power, but there ain’t the dosh. Harsh decisions are avoided and put off. It seems humanity is very blinkered.

Orange-boi is mooting a trade war, his credit rating is probably worse than China’s. He has caused several of his own businesses to fail, six bankruptcies. I am not sure that these wars are a good idea and I do not trust his judgement. I understand that he may like chaos.

USA GDP is ~30,000 billion, current account balance is about 1000 billion in the red. There could be a cash flow problem for them. It is paying around 3% of GDP in interest close to 1000 billion dollars. Government revenue is ~ 10,000 billion dollars per year, government expenditure ~ 11,000 billion dollars. That is a 1000 billion overspend.

UK GDP is about 3500 billion dollars and current account balance is overdrawn by ~ 100 billion dollars.

These figures are beyond my ken. 100 billion in aid to Ukraine from USA does not seem to much but it is ~1% of revenue.

I am not sure that loan financing for vanity projects is a good idea.

Cash flow problems are difficult to solve and markets are very jittery.

When things move too far from equilibrium anharmonic behaviour sets in and some non-linearities come into effect. What these may be is beyond our ken. A downgrade in credit rating means more expensive borrowing which if funded by more borrowing is not a virtuous circle.

A number of key figures are exhibiting flakiness Yoon Sook Yeol and Macron with his unneeded elections. There are a lot of instabilities. Where is Merkel when you need her?

My pet theory is that because of increased climate change induced “disasters” household and auto insurance will increase substantially and may become prohibitively expensive. Ours has gone up by governmental decree! Because of insurance costs, places will become inhabitable which will raise house prices elsewhere. People have already mooted that the French might move North to places with a milder oceanic climate like Brittany.

Governments already straining financially will increasingly struggle to mitigate and clean up. The blame game will be played when everyone is not ready to take responsibility and make the necessary adjustments to their life “style”. It might impede their Instagram story.

My gut feeling is that the shit must really hit the fan before people will even begin to countenance radical change.

The scale of what may lie ahead is beyond our ken. What people are doing is crossing their fingers and hoping for the best. There are climate change deniers who like the sound of their own voice.

The rule of thumb is that when you are in a hole it is best to stop digging. Hoping for the fairy godmother whilst buying some more semi-automatic assault rifles will not stop tornadoes or floods.

My guess is that humanity is heading for a really profound wake up call which will be beyond our current ken.

Tag: Ken

The Tendency to Underestimate

Beyond Your/our Ken?