politics – Page 2

When Israel launched its revenge attack on Gaza last year, I predicted that maybe 2% of the Gazan population would be killed and this figure has already been surpassed. There have been more that 5% injured. Apparently, this kind of slaughter is “allowable” without much adverse comment to the contrary by western leaders. 7% of the population killed or injured does not meet the criterion of genocide, according to some.

If not, what does?

If you would have asked me five years ago if this kind of slaughter could happen in our times, I would have said no because it was beyond my ken that a highly armed power would be allowed to kick the living shit out of an impoverished and nearly defenceless neighbour. The giant kills the minnow, the bully beats up the unpopular geek who dared to answer back.

–

–

It looks like Putin is winning the war of attrition in Ukraine. They are running out of men to draft. The Russians know attrition better than any – Stalingrad.

As the year draws to a close, I am not optimistic for 2025.

The paradigm of governmental borrowing to finance public expenditure is looking ever shakier. Living on tick is not a great idea. Several countries like Zambia, Argentina, Bhutan, Japan, Greece, Sudan, USA and UK have national debt in excess of GDP. {IMF sourced} France too.

The populations in Europe and parts of Asia age and the demographic time bomb of too few children per woman is ticking ominously. There simply is not enough money to sustain our current ways of life.

People want popular policies to get into power, but there ain’t the dosh. Harsh decisions are avoided and put off. It seems humanity is very blinkered.

Orange-boi is mooting a trade war, his credit rating is probably worse than China’s. He has caused several of his own businesses to fail, six bankruptcies. I am not sure that these wars are a good idea and I do not trust his judgement. I understand that he may like chaos.

USA GDP is ~30,000 billion, current account balance is about 1000 billion in the red. There could be a cash flow problem for them. It is paying around 3% of GDP in interest close to 1000 billion dollars. Government revenue is ~ 10,000 billion dollars per year, government expenditure ~ 11,000 billion dollars. That is a 1000 billion overspend.

UK GDP is about 3500 billion dollars and current account balance is overdrawn by ~ 100 billion dollars.

These figures are beyond my ken. 100 billion in aid to Ukraine from USA does not seem to much but it is ~1% of revenue.

I am not sure that loan financing for vanity projects is a good idea.

Cash flow problems are difficult to solve and markets are very jittery.

When things move too far from equilibrium anharmonic behaviour sets in and some non-linearities come into effect. What these may be is beyond our ken. A downgrade in credit rating means more expensive borrowing which if funded by more borrowing is not a virtuous circle.

A number of key figures are exhibiting flakiness Yoon Sook Yeol and Macron with his unneeded elections. There are a lot of instabilities. Where is Merkel when you need her?

My pet theory is that because of increased climate change induced “disasters” household and auto insurance will increase substantially and may become prohibitively expensive. Ours has gone up by governmental decree! Because of insurance costs, places will become inhabitable which will raise house prices elsewhere. People have already mooted that the French might move North to places with a milder oceanic climate like Brittany.

Governments already straining financially will increasingly struggle to mitigate and clean up. The blame game will be played when everyone is not ready to take responsibility and make the necessary adjustments to their life “style”. It might impede their Instagram story.

My gut feeling is that the shit must really hit the fan before people will even begin to countenance radical change.

The scale of what may lie ahead is beyond our ken. What people are doing is crossing their fingers and hoping for the best. There are climate change deniers who like the sound of their own voice.

The rule of thumb is that when you are in a hole it is best to stop digging. Hoping for the fairy godmother whilst buying some more semi-automatic assault rifles will not stop tornadoes or floods.

My guess is that humanity is heading for a really profound wake up call which will be beyond our current ken.

Here is this morning’s totally out of the blue dream.

The wife and I are staying in a temporary apartment. It is well finished and on an upper floor. It is in a city in a posh neighbourhood. There is a buzz on the intercom and I go to answer it.

“The car is here for you now, sir!”

I go downstairs and am driven to another posh looking building. It is of a Parisian style. I am ushered into a very elegant hall with highly veneered wooden panelling and elegant curtains. The style is palatial. I am standing there examining the beauty of the room.

In walks Emmanuel Macron. He is suited and booted. He walks over to me, shakes my hand, and puts his left arm on my shoulder. He speaks to me in English and ushers me through a disguised door in the panelling.

We are now in pitch black. I say that we need some light. A switch flicks. A bright white light comes on.

I can see that Macron has a large pair of callipers and is measuring the size of my head.

In front of me is a high technology medical examination room. There are an array of doctors wearing white coats. The head doctor says to the others that they must now assess every aspect of my physical health. They will need to know every detail including things like alcohol consumption and food preference. There is much muttering.

A tall smartly dressed older woman who is not a doctor comes over to me. The callipers have vanished. I can see from the way that she and Macron are interacting that they know each other well and he trusts her.

She asks me why I applied for the job as driver / adviser.

I say that I was not aware that I had.

She asks me if I think I could work with Macron.

I say that from what I have seen of him on the TV I like his character and approach so yes.

This seems to please Macron.

We are now standing by an immaculate piece of cabinet making. On it is a souvenir of Teotihuacán. The photo card has an image of all the temple complex buildings. Attached to each building is a precious or semi-precious stone.

Macron asks me who the best emperor of Teotihuacán was.

I say it has been wiped from my mind. There was a time when I was fascinated by all things South American. I knew them all.

He smiles and says that one of the perks of the job is that people give you interesting and thought provoking presents.

The medics have arranged a series of appointments for me.

A tall young woman with blonde hair in a pastel blue suit comes into the room. She goes over to the human resources woman. Apparently, the younger woman is to be my liaison.

Macron comes with me back to the apartment. Now the car is his limousine.

He comes up in the lift with me and opens the door to the apartment. He ushers me in. There is an understanding that we will meet again soon.

The wife is asleep on the couch under a blanket.

As the door closes, she wakes up.

I say to her that she is unlikely to believe what has just happened.

Dream ends.

Tag: politics

Beyond Your/our Ken?

Emmanuel Macron – Medical – Job – Teotihuacán – Dream 22-12-23